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2024年度
国产存储行业迎来新机遇
HUAWEI Pura 70
搭载麒麟9010处理器,支持5G网络
超90%的零部件由大陆企业生产和供应
这预示着 国产存储芯片 正在加速崛起
行情趋势
宏观趋势: 全球半导体市场需求增长放缓,中国高端制造业表现相对较好
终端市场: 华为Pura 70上市即售罄,其核心元件供应链基本实现国产化,包括DRAM、NAND芯片,存储芯片国产替代进程有望加快
产品行情: 存储原厂端价格继续上调,根据TrendForce数据,DRAM合约价Q2涨幅达13%-18%、NAND Flash合约价涨幅约15%-20%,但现货价增长动能不足
产业动态: 三星、SK海力士计划加大对DRAM晶圆投入量,看好DRAM需求增长
01
宏观动态
Macro Environment
01
经济景气跟踪
中国制造业恢复发展,美国制造业PMI则大幅回落
24年4月,根据JP Morgan数据,全球制造业PMI为50.3,仍处于扩张区间。
分区域来看:
亚洲方面, 中国地区制造业PMI为50.4,连续两个月位于扩张区间,制造业维持恢复发展态势,其中生产指数为52.9(环比上升0.7pct),尤其是计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数均位于55.0以上,企业生产扩张加快、产能释放较快;高技术制造业PMI为53.0,高端制造业保持较快发展。日本制造业PMI有所回升,但仍处于萎缩区间;韩国则继续小幅下滑。印度制造业PMI延续扩张态势;越南制造业PMI回升至50.3,主要系新订单有所恢复。
美洲方面, 美国ISM制造业PMI回落至49.2,主要系新订单及生产指数有所下滑。墨西哥制造业PMI为51.0,延续扩张态势。
欧洲方面, 欧元区制造业PMI继续下滑至45.7,主要系订单需求下滑。
全球各地区制造业PMI
以上转载自FastBull
02
行业需求动态
受宏观经济波动影响,全球半导体市场需求增长放缓
24年3月,全球半导体销售额继续呈现季节性调整趋势,环比下滑约0.6%。从24年Q1来看,全球半导体销售额累计达1397.1亿美元,累计同增15.6%,增速有所放缓。
全球半导体销售额(十亿美元)
以上转载自SIA
分区域来看:
亚太地区 , 3月整体表现平淡,销售额为294.9亿美元(同比+15.1%);Q1累计销售额为897.7亿美元(累计同比+16.2%)。其中,中国地区3月销售额达141.4亿美元,与上月持平。日本地区需求持续低迷,3月同比下降9.3%。
美洲地区, 市场需求表现同比修复较快,3月销售额121.3亿美元,同比增长26.2%。
欧洲地区, 市场相对疲软,销售额同比降幅继续扩大(-7.0%),制造业表现较差。
分地区半导体销售额(十亿美元)
以上转载自SIA
03
突发事件分析
4月3日7时58分在台湾花莲县海域发生7.3级地震。
根据TrendForce研究报告(4月10日),各厂商所需检修及报废晶圆数量不一,且厂房设备本身抗震能力均能达到一定的抗震效果,Micron(美光)、Nanya Technology(南亚科技)、PSMC(力积电)、Winbond(华邦电子)等均大致恢复100%的产线运作,估计本次地震对第二季DRAM产出位元影响仍可控制在1%以内。另外,市场传出有PC OEM供应商出于特殊考量,接受高昂的DRAM及NAND Flash合约价涨幅,但仅是零星成交情况。
分地区半导体销售额(十亿美元)
以上转载自TrendForce
04
资本市场动态
美国10年期国债利率月内继续上升,进出口贸易汇率风险
24年4月,美国10年期国债利率继续上升,主要系美联储确认延期降息,持续进出口贸易汇率风险。
美国10年期国债利率 (%)
以上转载自MacroMicro
受美国经济预期影响,费城半导体指数月内大幅波动
受美联储宣布推迟降息影响,费城半导体指数(SOX)于4月中旬大幅下跌;但在美国公布就业数据后,由于失业率攀升,市场对美联储降息预期或将回温,费城半导体指数继续回升。
费城半导体指数 (SOX)
以上转载自MacroMicro
05
产业政策动态
马来西亚规划东南亚最大集成电路设计园区,加速发展半导体产业
据路透社消息,马来西亚政府于4月22日宣布,计划打造东南亚最大的集成电路设计园区,旨在将吉隆坡塑造为区域数字中心。为此,政府将推出一系列激励措施,包括税收减免、补贴及免签证费等,以吸引全球科技公司与投资者。
美国将与阿联酋合作发展AI产业,或将影响AI产业格局
拜登政府积极推动美国科技集团在阿联酋寻找人工智能的交易和合作机会。4月15日,Microsoft(微软)宣布向阿布扎比的人工智能集团G42投资15亿美元。《华盛顿邮报》报道,作为谈判的一部分,G42已同意从中国撤资、将中国设备从其业务中剔除,其中包括华为。
法国补贴本土太阳能电池板,影响中国光伏厂商出海进程
本月,法国经济和财政部部长勒梅尔在参观光伏园区时宣布,法国将通过提供补贴、修订碳含量标准等方式支持法国国产太阳能电池板,以削弱中国光伏制造商在欧洲占据的主导地位。
日本将收紧对更多芯片和量子技术的出口管制,可能影响相关芯片厂商
日本表示计划扩大对与半导体和量子计算相关的四种技术的出口限制,将影响用于分析纳米粒子图像的扫描电子显微镜,以及全环绕栅极晶体管技术(被三星采用)。日本还将要求出口低温CMOS电路(用于量子计算机)及出口量子计算机本身须获得许可。
02
半导体产业动态
Industry Updates
01
短期影响
Samsung将于今年Q2量产HBM3E,存储芯片厂商格局将持续演变
Samsung(三星)将于2024年Q2量产12层HBM3E,并搭载于AMD(超微半导体)新一代AI半导体。随着其HBM客户扩大至超微,三星有望加速追赶SK Hynix(SK海力士)。
02
中期影响
广达搭载NVIDIA GB200的服务器将于9月量产,持续看好AI服务器需求增长
Quanta(广达)资深副总经理暨云达总经理杨麒令表示,搭载NVIDIA(英伟达)GB200的服务器将于9月量产。四大CSP(云服务提供商)客户需求大,预计广达今年服务器出货量维持两位数增长。大型CSP厂商均相当看好全新英伟达Blackwell架构,需求量大,初期订单不小。
03
长期影响
Samsung开设实验室自研AI芯片,有望改变AI芯片行业格局
据韩媒Sedaily报道,Samsung(三星电子)通过旗下三星综合研究院在美国硅谷开设面向人工智能芯片设计的先进处理器实验室。该实验室将专注于RISC-V架构处理器IP的设计工作,最终目标是打造基于RISC-V架构的自研人工智能芯片,打破NVIDIA(英伟达)在人工智能芯片领域的霸权。
03
终端市场动态
Application Updates
04
重点产品行情
Product Updates
01
存储芯片
终端需求增长放缓,现货价格增长动力不足
近期,原厂端价格仍在环比上涨,但由于终端需求增长放缓,现货市场价格增长相对持平,成交压力较大。
DRAM及NAND价格指数
以上转载自闪存市场
根据TrendForce最新预测,第二季度DRAM合约价季涨幅将上修至13%-18%;NAND Flash合约价季涨幅同步上修至约15%-20%,全线产品仅eMMC/UFS价格涨幅较小,约10%。
DRAM和NAND Flash合约价涨幅预测
以上转载自TrendForce
另一方面,企业级SSD行情有所起色。为降低AI推理服务器能耗,北美客户对QLC Enterprise SSD需求开始提升。根据TrendForce预计,2024年QLC Enterprise SSD出货位元将同比增长4倍。
2024年SSD合约价季度涨幅预测
以上转载自TrendForce
02
MCU
低端型号市价倒挂,车规类器件货期较长且稳定
通用类MCU需求仍然较弱,Microchip低端型号市场价格倒挂,NXP传统MCU交期较短。
汽车MCU需求仍然相对稳定。分市场来看,Infineon(英飞凌)的安全MCU几乎垄断智能驾驶领域,目前市场销售的多数车身域、底盘域、动力域控制器都采用英飞凌TC2xx系列、TC3xx系列MCU。TechInsights数据显示,英飞凌以近14%的市场份额稳居全球汽车MCU市场榜首。
MCU交期及价格趋势
以上转载自安富利
03
模拟芯片
受益于消费电子市场弱复苏,Q2订单有望恢复
近期,模拟芯片仍以消费电子市场为增长动能,根据Canalys数据,24年Q1全球智能手机出货量同比增长11%;全球PC出货量同比增长3%。第二季度开始,工业、汽车行业需求或将有所复苏,TI(德州仪器)给予Q2业绩乐观预测,表明终端客户已恢复下单。
模拟芯片交期及价格趋势
以上转载自安富利
05
市场重点趋势
Key Market Trends
01
华为Pura 70手机销售火热
华为Pura 70系列新机 上市后销售火热,TechInsights分析师表示,预计2024年整个Pura 70系列销量将超过1000万台。根据Fomalhaut Techno Solutions的拆解报告指出,华为仅Pura70 Ultra主相机采用索尼零组件;其余Pura70、Pura70 Pro、Pura70 Pro+等机型的核心处理器、面板、机壳、电池、镜头、散热、声学元件等零组件, 几乎全面国产化 。据悉,Pura 70系列的主要供应商涵盖欧菲光、蓝思科技、歌尔声学、长盈精密、舜宇光学、京东方、水晶光电等企业。
02
终端需求疲软
尽管存储原厂计划调涨产品价格,但终端市场需求仍然较为疲软,除了高端的DDR4/DDR5外,其他 中低端存储产品现货价格或将承压 。
以上转载自安芯易电子
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END
✦
我国现已经明确了以自主创新为主引擎的发展战略,高度重视芯片产业的发展。芯片是当今信息社会的核心基石,对于国家经济、安全、科技进步都具有重要意义。 新一代信息技术与应用展(工业互联网展) 即将在中国国际工业博览会隆重推出全新展区—— 芯展区 !
芯展区将汇集研发、生产、应用等环节的优秀企业,展示最新科研成果、前沿技术和创新应用案例。参展企业将通过展示最新的芯片技术、产品和解决方案,向观众展示芯片在人工智能、物联网、大数据、云计算等领域的广泛应用,深入阐释芯片在驱动产业升级与创新发展中发挥的重要作用。
此外,芯展区还将举办一系列高端论坛、技术交流与合作洽谈活动。届时,国内外专家学者将围绕芯片行业的前沿研究、政策导向、市场趋势等话题展开深入研讨,为行业发展提供智慧和思路。同时,与会者还将有机会与业内专业人士建立联系,促进技术交流与合作,共同推动芯片产业的协同创新。
←向左滑动查看中文版
←Swipe left to Chinese Version
2024
Domestic Storage Industry
HUAWEI Pura 70
Kirin 9010 Processor & 5G Network
90% Parts are from Mainland Enterprises
Domestic Chips are Accelerating the Rise
Market Trend
Macro trend: The global semiconductor market demand growth has slowed down, and China's high-end manufacturing industry has performed relatively well
End market: Huawei Pura 70 is sold out immediately on the market, and its core component supply chain has basically realized localization, including DRAM and NAND chips, and the domestic replacement process of memory chips is expected to accelerate
Product market: Storage original prices continue to rise, according to TrendForce data, DRAM contract prices rose by 13%-18% in Q2, NAND Flash contract prices rose by about 15%-20%, but spot price growth momentum is insufficient
Industry dynamics: Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase their investment in DRAM wafers and are optimistic about the growth of DRAM demand
01
Macro Environment
宏观环境
01
Economic climate tracking
China's manufacturing sector recovered, while the US manufacturing PMI fell sharply
In April 24, according to JP Morgan data, the global manufacturing PMI was 50.3, still in the expansion range.
By Region:
In Asia, China's regional manufacturing PMI was 50.4, located in the expansion range for two consecutive months.
In the Americas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, mainly due to declines in new orders and production indices.
In Europe, the eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to decline to 45.7, mainly due to the decline in order demand.
Global manufacturing PMI by region
From:FastBull
02
Industry demand dynamics
The global semiconductor market demand growth has slowed down
In March 24, global semiconductor sales continued to show a seasonally adjusted trend, down about 0.6% from the previous month.
Global semiconductor sales (USD billion)
From:SIA
By Region:
In Asia Pacific, the overall performance in March was flat, with sales of $29.49 billion (+15.1% year over year); Q1 cumulative sales were $89.77 billion (cumulative +16.2%).
In the Americas region, the market demand performance was faster than the previous year, and sales in March were 12.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.2%.
In the European region, the market was relatively weak, the year-on-year decline in sales continued to widen (-7.0%), and the manufacturing sector performed poorly.
Semiconductor sales by region
From:SIA
03
Emergency A nalysis
A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck at 7:58 a.m. on April 3 off Hualien County, Taiwan.
According to the TrendForce research report (April 10), the number of maintenance and scrap wafers required by each manufacturer varies.
Semiconductor sales by region
From:TrendForce
04
Capital Market Dynamics
The interest rate of US 10-year Treasury bonds continued to rise in the month
In April 24, the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate continued to rise.
Us 10-year Treasury Rate (%)
From:MacroMicro
The Philly Semiconductor Index fluctuated sharply during the month due to expectations of the US economy
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell sharply in mid-April after the Fed announced a delay in interest rate cuts.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)
From:MacroMicro
05
Industrial Policy Dynamics
Malaysia plans the largest integrated circuit design park in Southeast Asia to accelerate the development of semiconductor industry
The Malaysian government announced plans on April 22 to build Southeast Asia's largest integrated circuit design park.
The United States will cooperate with the UAE to develop the AI industry, or it will affect the AI industry pattern
The Biden administration has actively pushed US tech groups to look for AI deals and partnerships in the UAE.
France subsidizes local solar panels
This month, French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire announced during a visit to the photovoltaic park that France will support French domestic solar panels.
Japan will tighten export controls on more chips and quantum technology
Japan said it plans to expand export restrictions on four technologies related to semiconductors and quantum computing.
02
Industry Updates
半导体产业动态
01
Short-term Impact
Samsung will mass-produce HBM3E in Q2 this year
Samsung will mass-produce 12-layer HBM3E in Q2 2024, and it will be equipped with the new generation of AMD (Advanced Micro Semiconductor) AI semiconductor.
02
Medium-term Impact
Quanta's servers equipped with NVIDIA GB200 will be mass-produced in September
Servers powered by NVIDIA GB200 will go into mass production in September.
03
Long-term Impact
Samsung opened a lab to develop AI chips
The lab will focus on the design of RISC-V architecture processor IP, and the ultimate goal is to create a self-developed artificial intelligence chip based on RISC-V architecture and break NVIDIA's hegemony in the field of artificial intelligence chips.
03
Application Updates
终端市场动态
04
Product Updates
重点产品行情
01
Storage Chip
The growth of terminal demand has slowed down
Recently, the price growth of the spot market is relatively flat, and the transaction pressure is greater.
DRAM and NAND price index
From: Flash Market
The quarterly price increase of NAND Flash contract was revised up to about 15%-20% at the same time, and the price increase of eMMC/UFS across the whole line was smaller, about 10%.
DRAM & NAND Flash Increase Forecast
From:Trend Force
On the other hand, the enterprise SSD market has improved. In order to reduce the energy consumption of AI inference servers, North American customers have begun to increase their demand for QLC Enterprise SSDS.
Forecast quarterly increase in 2024
From:Trend Force
02
MCU
The low-end model market price is upside down, and the delivery time of vehicle type devices is long and stable
The demand for general-purpose MCUS is still weak, the market price of Microchip's low-end models is inverted.
Automotive MCU demand remains relatively stable. In terms of market segments, Infineon's security MCU almost monopolizes the intelligent driving field, and most of the body area, chassis area and power area controllers sold on the market at present use Infineon TC2xx series and TC3xx series MCUS.
MCU Delivery and Price Trend
From: Avnet
03
Analog Chips
Benefiting from the weak recovery of the consumer electronics market, Q2 orders are expected to recover
Recently, analog chips are still the growth momentum of the consumer electronics market, according to Canalys data, 24 Q1 global smartphone shipments increased by 11% year-on-year; Global PC shipments increased 3% year-over-year.
Simulate Chip Delivery and Price Trends
From: Avnet
05
Key Market Trends
市场重点趋势
01
Huawei Pura 70 is selling well
Huawei's new Pura 70 series is selling hot after the launch, and TechInsights analysts said that the entire Pura 70 series is expected to sell more than 10 million units in 2024.
02
Weak End Demand
Although the storage manufacturer plans to increase product prices, the terminal market demand is still relatively weak, in addition to high-end DDR4/DDR5, other low-end storage products spot prices or will be under pressure.
From:360iC
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END
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The upcoming ICTS will introduce a new exhibition area at the CIIF - the Core exhibition area !
This section will bring together leading enterprises involved in research and development, production, application, etc., showcasing cutting-edge technologies, innovative applications, and latest scientific achievements.
Moreover, within the Core exhibition area there will be high-end forums for experts from home and abroad to engage in discussions about cutting-edge research topics such as policy guidance.
第24届中国国际工业博览会
2024年9月24日-28日
国家会展中心(上海)
订阅号
@中国工博会
服务号
@数字工博CIIF
视频号
@中国工博会
参考资料:
CIIF
举办地区:上海
展会日期:2024年09月24日-2024年09月28日
开闭馆时间:09:00-18:00
举办地址:上海市青浦区徐泾镇崧泽大道333号
展览面积:300000
观众数量:181346
举办周期:1年1届
主办单位:工业和信息化部、商务部、中国科学院、中国国际贸易促进委员会